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  3. The Big Short Guy Just Bet $1 Billion That the AI Bubble Pops

The Big Short Guy Just Bet $1 Billion That the AI Bubble Pops

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  • tonytins@pawb.socialT This user is from outside of this forum
    tonytins@pawb.socialT This user is from outside of this forum
    tonytins@pawb.social
    wrote last edited by
    #1
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    • tonytins@pawb.socialT tonytins@pawb.social
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      echodot@feddit.uk
      wrote last edited by
      #2

      The fact that he was even able to make that bet is incredible. How deluded do you have to be to think the AI bubble won't burst? Keeping it going will require in ever-increasing amounts of money to paper over the gaping chasms that keep cropping up, and eventually the amount of money necessary to keep it going will cease to be feasible. Then, after taking gullible investor for all of they've got, the whole thing will fall over in the world's most well deserved and predictable market crash.

      The subprime mortgage collapse was inevitable only in hindsight, you had to have a good understanding of the market to see it in advance. To see the level of corruption and false promises that have to be made in order to make the mortgage bubble possible. But everyone can see the AI BS right out in the open, I'm not talking about the "how many Rs are in strawberry" questions either, I can sort of see why that's not really a fair question. I'm talking about the fact that every single business that has ever tried to replace its employees with AI, has always failed, and failed almost immediately. Even Amazon couldn't make it work.

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      • tonytins@pawb.socialT tonytins@pawb.social
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        phoenixz@lemmy.ca
        wrote last edited by
        #3

        The simple fact that somebody was able even to bet a billion is insanity that should never be possible to begin with.

        Nobody should have a billion dollars, let alone have so much that you can just safely bet a billion dollars

        Them he's betting.yhst the economy will crash, basically, and we're okay with that shit.

        All of this should be illegal as fuck, and this guy belongs in a jail cell

        P 1 Reply Last reply
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        • E echodot@feddit.uk

          The fact that he was even able to make that bet is incredible. How deluded do you have to be to think the AI bubble won't burst? Keeping it going will require in ever-increasing amounts of money to paper over the gaping chasms that keep cropping up, and eventually the amount of money necessary to keep it going will cease to be feasible. Then, after taking gullible investor for all of they've got, the whole thing will fall over in the world's most well deserved and predictable market crash.

          The subprime mortgage collapse was inevitable only in hindsight, you had to have a good understanding of the market to see it in advance. To see the level of corruption and false promises that have to be made in order to make the mortgage bubble possible. But everyone can see the AI BS right out in the open, I'm not talking about the "how many Rs are in strawberry" questions either, I can sort of see why that's not really a fair question. I'm talking about the fact that every single business that has ever tried to replace its employees with AI, has always failed, and failed almost immediately. Even Amazon couldn't make it work.

          P This user is from outside of this forum
          P This user is from outside of this forum
          partial_accumen@lemmy.world
          wrote last edited by
          #4

          The fact that he was even able to make that bet is incredible. How deluded do you have to be to think the AI bubble won’t burst?

          Nobody believes the AI investment/growth trajectory we have right now will continue for infinity. What nobody knows is: when the correction will occur.

          • Do you pull your investments out now and sit on the sidelines waiting for the fallout while your principal loses value daily from inflation?
          • What does the correction look like when it happens? Does all the value evaporate on day 1, the first week, a month? This is important to figure out for this strategy to know when to go back in.

          This is the info/decisions you'd need as an average investor. What Burry is doing is the riskiest type of investments with shorting the market. If growth continue to occur he and his fund will have to pay for the growth to those whose shares he borrowed to short.

          In summary, its not enough to know that a bubble exists, but to profit from it you have to figure out when it will burst and when the full burst is done.

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          • P phoenixz@lemmy.ca

            The simple fact that somebody was able even to bet a billion is insanity that should never be possible to begin with.

            Nobody should have a billion dollars, let alone have so much that you can just safely bet a billion dollars

            Them he's betting.yhst the economy will crash, basically, and we're okay with that shit.

            All of this should be illegal as fuck, and this guy belongs in a jail cell

            P This user is from outside of this forum
            P This user is from outside of this forum
            partial_accumen@lemmy.world
            wrote last edited by partial_accumen@lemmy.world
            #5

            Edit: Redacted a mistaken identity

            I'm not sure you understand what this article is or how our markets work.

            The simple fact that somebody was able even to bet a billion is insanity that should never be possible to begin with. Nobody should have a billion dollars, let alone have so much that you can just safely bet a billion dollars

            He doesn't have a billion dollars. He's a hedge fund manager that manages (at least) a billion dollars collectively of other people's investment money. Its that money he's betting.

            Them he’s betting.yhst the economy will crash, basically, and we’re okay with that shit.

            No, he's not. He's betting against only two companies: Nvidia and Palantir. He has a relatively small bet against Nvidia ($187.6 million), and HUGE bet against Palantir ($912 million). I'm not sure I'd bet against Nvidia yet, but Palantir is co-founded by Peter Theil, trump's deputy chief of staff which job has a large influence on White House policy. If you ever watched the TV show The West Wing, this would be the Josh Lyman character's job.

            We already know trump's favor swings widely and if politics are going against trump (as recent news show) then its not unbelievable that Theil might get the boot or at least trump would punish Theil by killing lucrative government contracts to buy Palantir services.

            All of this should be illegal as fuck, and this guy belongs in a jail cell

            The point of shorting a stock exists so that the market can express a view that they believe a stock will fail. This is an important "canary in the coal mine" for the rest of the market. The other option is a policy that you can't criticize a company with any meaning and investors continue to put money into failing/risky companies without this important indication of the risk.

            Frankly I don't like your idea of jailing someone that says "The emperor has no clothes".

            B 1 Reply Last reply
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            • P partial_accumen@lemmy.world

              Edit: Redacted a mistaken identity

              I'm not sure you understand what this article is or how our markets work.

              The simple fact that somebody was able even to bet a billion is insanity that should never be possible to begin with. Nobody should have a billion dollars, let alone have so much that you can just safely bet a billion dollars

              He doesn't have a billion dollars. He's a hedge fund manager that manages (at least) a billion dollars collectively of other people's investment money. Its that money he's betting.

              Them he’s betting.yhst the economy will crash, basically, and we’re okay with that shit.

              No, he's not. He's betting against only two companies: Nvidia and Palantir. He has a relatively small bet against Nvidia ($187.6 million), and HUGE bet against Palantir ($912 million). I'm not sure I'd bet against Nvidia yet, but Palantir is co-founded by Peter Theil, trump's deputy chief of staff which job has a large influence on White House policy. If you ever watched the TV show The West Wing, this would be the Josh Lyman character's job.

              We already know trump's favor swings widely and if politics are going against trump (as recent news show) then its not unbelievable that Theil might get the boot or at least trump would punish Theil by killing lucrative government contracts to buy Palantir services.

              All of this should be illegal as fuck, and this guy belongs in a jail cell

              The point of shorting a stock exists so that the market can express a view that they believe a stock will fail. This is an important "canary in the coal mine" for the rest of the market. The other option is a policy that you can't criticize a company with any meaning and investors continue to put money into failing/risky companies without this important indication of the risk.

              Frankly I don't like your idea of jailing someone that says "The emperor has no clothes".

              B This user is from outside of this forum
              B This user is from outside of this forum
              burntbacon@discuss.tchncs.de
              wrote last edited by
              #6

              I had to go check just to be sure, but you're confusing peter thiel, the boogeyman behind such lovely individuals as vance, with stephen miller, the boogeyman behind some of the worst of this administration's vile acts against anyone less white than banana pudding.

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              • B burntbacon@discuss.tchncs.de

                I had to go check just to be sure, but you're confusing peter thiel, the boogeyman behind such lovely individuals as vance, with stephen miller, the boogeyman behind some of the worst of this administration's vile acts against anyone less white than banana pudding.

                P This user is from outside of this forum
                P This user is from outside of this forum
                partial_accumen@lemmy.world
                wrote last edited by
                #7

                Yep, thanks for the fact check. Peter Theil is certainly a trump advisor helping shape policy but he doesn't hold an government office. I've corrected my post.

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