At this point I think it's clear that Tesla's share price is entirely irrational.
-
At this point I think it's clear that Tesla's share price is entirely irrational. Their sales are down globally, they're facing a government in the US that's openly hostile to EVs, a market in the EU that openly detests their products because their CEO is a Nazi, and in China they're being destroyed by cheaper competitors.
Even if they were a successful car company with clear skies and open road ahead of them, that would not justify their share price. Tesla's market cap is 1.44tn. Toyota's is 262bn. There is no sane world where Tesla's car business is worth 5½ times Toyota's.
Investors are, at best, pricing Tesla on the notion that their self driving tech is where the real money is at, but even that is entirely irrational because Waymo are destroying them on a self driving. Tesla have over promised and under delivered on self driving for years, and have little more than lawsuits to show for it, while their competition have been solving all the problems they still struggle with.
Which leaves us with the conclusion that investors are really just pricing Tesla on vibes, and perhaps on the broader bet that one of the richest men in the world will always succeed in keeping the main source of his wealth from collapsing. Basically the only argument for betting on this company that I can see is that it's too big to fail in a world this corrupt.
-
At this point I think it's clear that Tesla's share price is entirely irrational. Their sales are down globally, they're facing a government in the US that's openly hostile to EVs, a market in the EU that openly detests their products because their CEO is a Nazi, and in China they're being destroyed by cheaper competitors.
Even if they were a successful car company with clear skies and open road ahead of them, that would not justify their share price. Tesla's market cap is 1.44tn. Toyota's is 262bn. There is no sane world where Tesla's car business is worth 5½ times Toyota's.
Investors are, at best, pricing Tesla on the notion that their self driving tech is where the real money is at, but even that is entirely irrational because Waymo are destroying them on a self driving. Tesla have over promised and under delivered on self driving for years, and have little more than lawsuits to show for it, while their competition have been solving all the problems they still struggle with.
Which leaves us with the conclusion that investors are really just pricing Tesla on vibes, and perhaps on the broader bet that one of the richest men in the world will always succeed in keeping the main source of his wealth from collapsing. Basically the only argument for betting on this company that I can see is that it's too big to fail in a world this corrupt.
Or maybe it's just the largest ponzi scheme in history
-
Or maybe it's just the largest ponzi scheme in history
How would this be a Ponzi scheme, specifically?
-
How would this be a Ponzi scheme, specifically?
As you said, it is so unbelievably overpriced that market forces don't come close to explaining it. Low level investors pump it full of money, and the top people get out before it all crashes like a Tesla in self-driving mode.
Technically pump and dump is not the same as a ponzi scheme, but it takes longer to explain.
-
As you said, it is so unbelievably overpriced that market forces don't come close to explaining it. Low level investors pump it full of money, and the top people get out before it all crashes like a Tesla in self-driving mode.
Technically pump and dump is not the same as a ponzi scheme, but it takes longer to explain.
Technically pump and dump is not the same as a ponzi scheme, but it takes longer to explain.
Repeated pump and dump with the Tesla board members continously sell shares in large chunks cashing out of Tesla. That wouldn't be something you do if you think its going to the moon.
Tesla board members, executive sell off over $100 million of stock in recent weeks [March2025]