Iran's Trump card - quick overview of How Iran could close the Straits of Hormuz. Reports indicate that the Iranian Parliament has agreed to do it.
Unscripted and unedited.

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Summary

In this video, independent defense analyst Hi Sutton provides an informed discussion on Iran’s potential capabilities to block the Strait of Hormuz, a strategically important waterway connecting the Persian Gulf to the Indian Ocean and a critical chokepoint for roughly 20% of the world's traded goods, especially crude oil exports. Although it remains unclear whether Iran has fully ratified any decision to close the Strait, the topic has become a significant point of concern in international security discussions. The analyst emphasizes that any move to block the Strait would be a drastic, last-resort action by Iran, and cautions against underestimating Iran's capabilities to disrupt maritime traffic seriously.

Sutton explains why Iran’s conventional navy is relatively weak and unlikely to succeed in a direct confrontation, calling it a modest force that would be overwhelmed by stronger naval powers without significant operational latitude. Instead, Iran’s main threat to keeping the Strait open or closed lies in its asymmetric naval and missile capabilities, particularly its extensive use of naval mines, ballistic and cruise anti-ship missiles, swarm tactics employing small boats, and submarine warfare. These unconventional tools make controlling or clearing the Strait of Hormuz highly challenging.

The analyst goes into detail on how Iran could deploy various types of mines—including sophisticated bottom mines that detect and detonate under vessels—making mine clearance operations complex and perilous in a contested environment. Iran’s anti-ship ballistic missiles, though less effective against merchant ships compared to warships, pose a serious threat to naval vessels, and they've been tested in conflict zones like the Red Sea with less-than-perfect but evolving effectiveness. Additionally, Iran’s missile arsenal includes modernized Chinese-origin cruise missile variants, which, while not individually ship-sinking, can collectively inflict meaningful damage.

Sutton also highlights the capabilities of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) naval forces, which include drone carriers, missile corvettes, and small fast attack crafts like explosive-laden swarm boats that have demonstrated effectiveness in irregular maritime warfare. The revolutionary guards’ corvettes are equipped with an array of missile systems and deploy fast rigid inflatable boats armed with torpedoes, which increase threats against both commercial and military vessels.

Submarine warfare is another notable element of Iran’s strategy. While the IRGC and Iranian navy own small, short-range submarines like the Gadier class, these vessels can closely operate in shallow waters or hidden among civilian maritime traffic, making detection difficult. Torpedoes, submarine-launched anti-ship missiles, and discreet mining operations from these subs add to the complexity of securing the Strait. Moreover, Iran possesses weaponized underwater vehicles, including slow torpedoes or autonomous underwater vehicles (AUVs), which may be utilized against stationary vessels or to lay mines covertly.

The video also touches upon Iran’s drone capabilities. While Iranian drones may not inflict decisive damage individually, their ability to strike distant targets in the Indian Ocean and swarm tactics can pose operational and psychological disturbances, potentially supplementing blockade efforts.

In terms of air defense, Sutton notes that while Iran’s larger air defense systems have been largely degraded, its mobile and survivable SAM 358 short-range surface-to-air missile system remains an effective threat to slow, low-flying surveillance and clearing aircraft such as helicopters or patrol planes. This poses specific risks to Western mine countermeasure and maritime interdiction operations.

Overall, the video presents a nuanced examination of Iran’s asymmetric naval warfare capabilities, stressing the complex challenge of maintaining freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz should Iran decide to disrupt or close the waterway. The strategic implications of such a blockade would be profound, affecting global trade and geopolitical stability.

Highlights

• ️ Iran’s conventional navy is modest and likely ineffective in a direct naval confrontation to close the Strait of Hormuz.
• Iran’s primary threat lies in naval mines, particularly sophisticated bottom mines that are difficult to detect and clear.
• Iran possesses anti-ship ballistic and cruise missiles, capable of threatening military and, to a lesser degree, merchant vessels.
• The IRGC employs missile corvettes and swarm tactics featuring small, explosive-laden boats posing significant danger in confined waters.
• � submarine warfare using small submarines like the Gadier class enhances Iran’s capabilities for covert attacks and mining operations.
• ️ Weaponized underwater vehicles/AUVs offer an advanced, stealthy method of targeting stationary or slow-moving ships.
• ️ Iran’s SAM 358 system remains a credible threat to Western naval aviation and mine-clearing operations in the Gulf.

Key Insights

• Strategic Importance of the Strait of Hormuz: The Strait is a critical maritime chokepoint facilitating about 20% of global trade, with a large volume of crude oil exports passing through it. This geography offers Iran a natural "trump card" in geopolitical conflicts due to the difficulty of bypassing or substituting this route. Any blockade or disruption could have immediate and severe global economic consequences, raising the stakes significantly in any confrontation.

• Naval Mines as a Force Multiplier: Iran’s ability to deploy bottom mines—smart, seabed-lying mines activated by proximity and designed to avoid mine-clearance efforts—constitutes one of the most potent and underestimated threats. Mines can paralyze maritime traffic and naval operations long after being laid, forcing extensive and risky mine-clearing missions. Given that minesweepers require permissive conditions and effective air and sea cover, Iran’s proximity to key areas makes mine clearance exceptionally hazardous and operationally complex.

• Anti-Ship Ballistic Missiles and Cruise Missiles: While Iranian anti-ship ballistic missiles are less precise or effective than those possessed by other countries (like China), they represent a credible threat to warships and can disrupt naval operations and convoy traffic. Cruise missiles, largely derived from Chinese systems, provide Iran with a layered missile attack capability. Though not decisive individually, the combined use of missiles in salvoes or alongside other asymmetric tactics magnifies their threat.

• Swarm Tactics and Small Motors Boats: Iran’s IRGC leverages swarms of small, fast boats, some loaded with explosives intended for collision attacks. These tactics exploit the congested and narrow waters of the Gulf, making it difficult for larger warships or commercial vessels to defend themselves. The psychological effect of such swarm attacks elevates their deterrent value, demonstrating an approach that compensates for conventional naval shortcomings with asymmetric precision.

• Submarine Deployment and Underwater Warfare: Iranian submarines like the Gadier class are specially tailored for littoral, stealthy operations. By blending in with civilian maritime traffic, they can evade detection and launch torpedo or missile attacks unexpectedly. Their ability to deploy mines covertly further enhances Iran’s blockade capability, enabling a multi-layered, stealthy maritime denial strategy that complicates enemy countermeasures.

• ️ Emerging Use of Underwater Autonomous Vehicles: The introduction of weaponized AUVs or "slow torpedoes" represents a new dimension in asymmetric naval warfare by Iran, with potential to strike static or slow-moving targets in ways that counter traditional naval defenses. These platforms might be launched from shore or from vessels, increasing the unpredictability and scope of Iran’s underwater threat posture.

• ️ Air Defense Limitations Coupled With Mobile SAM Threats: Although Iran’s broader air defense grid has weakened, its SAM 358 system remains highly effective against certain aircraft types used for surveillance and mine clearance. Western navies attempting to operate helicopters or patrol flights will face concrete risks from this highly survivable, individually operated missile system, potentially challenging safe and efficient mine countermeasures and maritime interdiction.

Conclusion

Iran’s strategic and asymmetric naval capabilities create a multifaceted and formidable obstacle to maintaining maritime freedom of passage through the Strait of Hormuz. While Iran’s conventional navy is relatively weak, its expertise in leveraging mines, missiles, swarm boats, small submarines, and emerging underwater vehicle technologies provides it a diversified arsenal that complicates direct engagement with Western naval forces. The Psychological and operational complexity of Iran’s multi-domain approach means that any attempt to close the Strait, even temporarily, could impose serious regional and global disruptions. Western powers face significant challenges in countering these threats, particularly in maintaining security and freedom of navigation under complex and contested conditions. Sutton’s analysis offers a crucial reminder that Iran’s naval strategy is not conventional but highly asymmetric, innovative, and regionally relevant, necessitating careful consideration by policymakers and military planners.

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